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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 2 at the 2
New York Jets 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12
What Actually Happened
(:16) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 11-D.Mims (26-S.Griffin).
The Three Options
GO
+3.70 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.84 EP
- 46% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 2, worth +0.08 EP
KICK
+2.86 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT
-0.03 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
