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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-A.Wingard. 42-A.Wingard up the middle to JAX 37 for 4 yards (43-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model