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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(8:19) 15-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model