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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

SEA
58.3%
HOU
41.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.245 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.231 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.026 EPA/dropback (HOU starting Davis Mills in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • SEA offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
HOU 20
Projected margin: SEA by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

SEA

Jamal Adams S Out Shoulder
Kyle Fuller G Out Calf
Travis Homer RB Out Calf
Brandon Shell T Out Shoulder
Quandre Diggs S Questionable Calf

HOU

Terrence Brooks S Out Hamstring
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Hamstring
Brandin Cooks WR Questionable Back
Jonathan Greenard DE Questionable Foot
Brevin Jordan TE Questionable Hand
A.J. Moore S Questionable Hip
Jimmy Moreland CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 33
–
HOU 13

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:09 TD HOU (11:09) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 9-B.Jordan for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 06:24 FG SEA (6:24) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – HOU 7
  • Q1 00:02 TD SEA (:02) 20-R.Penny right tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – HOU 7
  • Q2 06:08 FG HOU (6:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. SEA 10 – HOU 10
  • Q2 01:00 TD SEA (1:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – HOU 10
  • Q2 00:04 FG HOU (:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. SEA 16 – HOU 13
  • Q3 04:35 FG SEA (4:35) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 19 – HOU 13
  • Q4 07:34 TD SEA (7:34) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 81-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SEA 25 – HOU 13
  • Q4 05:35 TD SEA (5:35) 20-R.Penny left tackle for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 33 – HOU 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (6:24) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to SEA 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (6:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%

    (2:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 41 yards to HOU 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to SEA 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 48%

    (:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to HOU 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-D.King to HOU 25 for 2 yards (19-P.Hart).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (4:35) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 40%

    (1:50) 11-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-F.Swain ran ob at SEA 20 for 9 yards (83-A.Auclair).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to HOU 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 25-D.King.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 40%

    (11:51) 11-C.Johnston punts 35 yards to SEA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 18-F.Swain ran ob at SEA 33 for 22 yards (23-E.Murray; 43-N.Hewitt).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep middle to 9-B.Jordan.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 6 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 37%

    (4:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep left to 13-B.Cooks. Penalty on HOU-65-L.Taylor, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 30%

    (2:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to HOU 18, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.