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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 43

Houston Texans 10 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.48 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model