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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 92

Houston Texans 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to SEA 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.11 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 92, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 50, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model