Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 47

Houston Texans 13 – Seattle Seahawks 33

(4:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep left to 13-B.Cooks. Penalty on HOU-65-L.Taylor, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.65 EP
64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -1.93 EP

KICK -0.42 EP

38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
62% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP

Chose GO ✓ matched the model