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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 3 at the 50
Houston Texans 13 – Seattle Seahawks 27
What Actually Happened
(6:22) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete deep middle to 9-B.Jordan.
The Three Options
GO
+0.03 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.48 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.25 EP
KICK
-0.94 EP
- 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
