Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 33 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to HOU 18, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.46 EP
76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.16 EP

KICK -1.10 EP

30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model