Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 58

Houston Texans 13 – Seattle Seahawks 16

(9:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model