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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to HOU 23, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-D.King to HOU 25 for 2 yards (19-P.Hart).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model