4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model