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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 3

Houston Texans 7 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 7-K.Fairbairn 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP