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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.72 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model