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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NO
43.9%
NYJ
56.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: +0.222 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.219 vs Taysom Hill (NO) -0.514 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NO on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

NO 19
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NO

Ryan Ramczyk T Out Knee
Pete Werner LB Out Elbow
Kaden Elliss LB Out Hamstring
Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR Questionable Hamstring

NYJ

Michael Carter CB Out Concussion
Tevin Coleman RB Out Concussion
Trevon Wesco TE Out Ankle
Elijah Moore WR Questionable Quadricep
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Hip
Ryan Griffin TE Questionable Knee
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Back
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Knee
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 30
–
NYJ 9

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:40 FG NO (6:40) 19-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 10:04 FG NYJ (10:04) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NO 3 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 03:49 TD NO (3:49) 41-A.Kamara right end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:05 FG NYJ (:05) 15-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NO 10 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 01:02 FG NO (1:02) 19-B.Maher 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 13 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 12:26 FG NO (12:26) 19-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 16 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 05:33 TD NO (5:33) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 22 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 03:32 FG NYJ (3:32) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NO 23 – NYJ 9
  • Q4 01:15 TD NO (1:15) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill left end for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 29 – NYJ 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:11) 7-B.Mann punts 52 yards to NO 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston to NO 30 for 11 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 82%

    (10:28) (Shotgun) 77-J.Carpenter reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left guard to NYJ 23 for 3 yards (57-C.Mosley, 33-E.Riley).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (6:40) 19-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:50) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to NO 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston to NO 28 for 12 yards (87-D.Brown).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 18%

    (1:42) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:12) 7-B.Mann punts 60 yards to NO 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston to NO 40 for 13 yards (43-D.Phillips).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 62%

    (11:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to NO 21 for 14 yards (56-D.Davis).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (10:04) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 23 for 5 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:06) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to NO 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 18-E.Winston. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NO 31.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:05) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to NO 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (1:02) 19-B.Maher 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:02) 7-B.Mann punts 54 yards to NO 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (86-R.Griffin).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 91%

    (12:26) 19-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 26%

    (10:19) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 88-K.Cole.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (3:32) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 54 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:47) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Montgomery to NYJ 42 for 8 yards (29-P.Adebo).