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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to NO 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston to NO 28 for 12 yards (87-D.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP