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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 18

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 23

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.15 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model