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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 66

New York Jets 9 – New Orleans Saints 23

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Montgomery to NYJ 42 for 8 yards (29-P.Adebo).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.09 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -1.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model