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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 10 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP