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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 53

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -3.16 EP
KICK -2.16 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model