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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 18

New York Jets 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 15-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.14 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model