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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 3 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 23 for 5 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP