Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 87

New York Jets 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

(:12) 7-B.Mann punts 60 yards to NO 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-E.Winston to NO 40 for 13 yards (43-D.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.10 EP
51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 87, worth -4.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model