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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 19-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP