Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
New York Jets
4th & 6 at the 49
New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 16
What Actually Happened
(10:19) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 88-K.Cole.
The Three Options
GO
-0.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.95 EP
- 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
KICK
-1.27 EP
- 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 74% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT
-0.23 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
