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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

TEN
34.0%
LA
66.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.408 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN offense: +0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23
–
LA 29
Projected margin: LA by 6 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TEN

Khari Blasingame FB Out Knee
Nate Davis G Out Concussion
Rashaan Evans LB Out Ankle
Greg Mabin CB Out Ankle
A.J. Brown WR Questionable Knee
Tory Carter FB Questionable Shoulder
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Back
Taylor Lewan T Questionable Knee
Monty Rice LB Questionable Knee

LA

Sebastian Joseph DT Out Chest
Ernest Jones LB Questionable Illness
Von Miller LB Questionable Ankle
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Not injury related - resting player
Robert Woods WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 28
–
LA 16

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:50 FG LA (3:50) 8-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TEN 0 – LA 3
  • Q2 12:25 TD TEN (12:25) 61-C.Levin and 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 87-G.Swaim for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – LA 3
  • Q2 12:16 TD TEN (12:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 2-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at LA 24. 31-K.Byard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – LA 3
  • Q2 02:15 TD TEN (2:15) (Run formation) 61-C.Levin and 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – LA 3
  • Q3 08:18 FG LA (8:18) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TEN 21 – LA 6
  • Q4 15:00 FG LA (15:00) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TEN 21 – LA 9
  • Q4 03:06 TD TEN (3:06) 61-C.Levin and 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 8-A.Peterson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – LA 9
  • Q4 00:31 TD LA (:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 25-S.Michel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TEN-20-J.Jenkins, Defensive Holding, declined. TEN 28 – LA 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (3:50) 8-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:51) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to LA 29, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 15 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to TEN 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 35 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:12) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to LA 4, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-29-D.Cruikshank.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TEN 36, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. LA-87-J.Harris was injured during the play.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 97%

    (4:24) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to LA 7 for 2 yards (51-T.Reeder).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (2:15) (Run formation) 61-C.Levin and 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TEN 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 41%

    (12:38) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to LA 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (8:18) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:41) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to LA 29, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 68%

    (2:35) 25-S.Michel up the middle to TEN 34 for 2 yards (37-A.Hooker; 93-T.Tart).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 68%

    (15:00) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%

    (10:44) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to LA 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-J.Koski pushed ob at LA 17 for 7 yards (92-O.Adeniyi).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 59%

    (6:44) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 12-V.Jefferson [48-B.Dupree].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 6 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (1:22) 25-S.Michel right tackle to TEN 2 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker).