4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 1

Tennessee Titans 14 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Run formation) 61-C.Levin and 75-D.Radunz reported in as eligible. 17-R.Tannehill right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 1, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model