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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 6

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 25-S.Michel right tackle to TEN 2 for 4 yards (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +3.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.82 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model