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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 4

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 8-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP