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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TEN 28, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model