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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model