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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 40

Los Angeles Rams 9 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 12-V.Jefferson [48-B.Dupree].

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.29 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model