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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 14 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to LA 7 for 2 yards (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.22 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model