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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to TEN 24, Center-42-M.Orzech. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 35 for 11 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model