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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 21 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to LA 29, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP