4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CLE
38.3%
CIN
61.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.201 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CIN offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 22
–
CIN 27
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CLE

Odell Beckham WR Out Shoulder
Jack Conklin T Out Elbow
Harrison Bryant TE Questionable Thigh
Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Ankle
Takkarist McKinley DE Questionable Groin
Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Questionable Groin
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Hamstring

CIN

Cameron Sample DE Questionable Knee
Chris Evans RB Questionable Hamstring
Auden Tate WR Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 41
–
CIN 16

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:58 TD CLE (8:58) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Ward at CLE 1. 21-D.Ward for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 04:16 TD CIN (4:16) 28-J.Mixon left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – CIN 6
  • Q2 14:53 TD CLE (14:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – CIN 7
  • Q2 10:18 TD CLE (10:18) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-B.Hill]. CLE 20 – CIN 7
  • Q2 04:14 FG CLE (4:14) 3-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 24 – CIN 7
  • Q2 00:05 FG CIN (:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 24 – CIN 10
  • Q3 08:10 TD CLE (8:10) 24-N.Chubb left end for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 30 – CIN 10
  • Q3 05:17 FG CLE (5:17) 3-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 34 – CIN 10
  • Q4 13:54 TD CIN (13:54) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 34 – CIN 16
  • Q4 04:31 TD CLE (4:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 85-D.Njoku for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-S.Hubbard]. CLE 40 – CIN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 59%

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 83-T.Boyd.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (4:14) 3-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 97%

    (:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (11:45) 7-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:21) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:17) 3-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:27) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to CLE 31, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-D.Felton to CLE 30 for -1 yards (17-S.Morgan).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:18) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to CIN 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 40 for 14 yards (52-E.Lee).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 84%

    (9:09) 3-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.Higgins (20-G.Newsome, 22-G.Delpit).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:27) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-D.Felton pushed ob at CLE 19 for 5 yards (57-G.Pratt).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:14) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to CIN 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-D.Phillips to CLE 47 for 16 yards (44-S.Takitaki; 7-J.Gillan). FUMBLES (44-S.Takitaki), recovered by CIN-33-T.Flowers at CLE 42. 33-T.Flowers to CLE 40 for 2 yards (31-A.Janovich). PENALTY on CIN-35-J.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 45. {Phillips credited with 8 yard return due to penalty}