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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.01 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP