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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Cleveland Browns 34

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to CLE 31, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-D.Felton to CLE 30 for -1 yards (17-S.Morgan).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model