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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 7-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model