Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Cleveland Browns 34

(7:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 85-T.Higgins (20-G.Newsome, 22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP