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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 16 – Cleveland Browns 41

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-D.Felton pushed ob at CLE 19 for 5 yards (57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -0.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP