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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 41 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 7-J.Gillan punts 36 yards to CIN 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-D.Phillips to CLE 47 for 16 yards (44-S.Takitaki; 7-J.Gillan). FUMBLES (44-S.Takitaki), recovered by CIN-33-T.Flowers at CLE 42. 33-T.Flowers to CLE 40 for 2 yards (31-A.Janovich). PENALTY on CIN-35-J.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 45. {Phillips credited with 8 yard return due to penalty}

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.29 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model