Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

(1:18) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to CIN 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 40 for 14 yards (52-E.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.03 EP
69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model