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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 3-C.McLaughlin 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.39 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model