4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 9

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(:05) 2-E.McPherson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model