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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 10

Cleveland Browns 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 3-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.98 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model