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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

PHI
44.1%
ATL
55.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Matt Ryan (ATL): -0.056 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PHI

Landon Dickerson G Out Knee
Rodney McLeod S Out Knee
Davion Taylor LB Questionable Calf

ATL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 32
–
ATL 6

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:02 FG ATL (10:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek. PHI 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 06:23 TD PHI (6:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 14:56 FG ATL (14:56) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek. PHI 7 – ATL 6
  • Q2 00:09 TD PHI (:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 13 – ATL 6
  • Q3 01:29 TD PHI (1:29) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – ATL 6
  • Q4 04:29 TD PHI (4:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 18-J.Reagor for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Oluokun]. PHI 28 – ATL 6
  • Q4 01:15 FG PHI (1:15) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 32 – ATL 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:02) 7-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 88%

    (2:30) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to PHI 23 for 1 yard (50-E.Wilson; 57-T.Edwards).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (14:56) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 68%

    (12:55) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:01) 9-C.Nizialek punts 35 yards to PHI 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:00) 9-C.Nizialek punts 52 yards to PHI 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 38 for 2 yards (47-J.Harris; 3-M.Walker).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to ATL 7, Center-45-R.Lovato. 35-A.Williams to ATL 14 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:18) 9-C.Nizialek punts 62 yards to PHI 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 11 yards (47-J.Harris; 40-K.Smith).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (7:03) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell right guard to ATL 19 for 1 yard (45-D.Jones; 54-F.Oluokun).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:32) 9-C.Nizialek punts 31 yards to 50, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:52) 9-C.Nizialek punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 18 for 7 yards (27-R.Grant).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:41) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to ATL 8, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (9:35) 9-C.Nizialek punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 20 for -1 yards (47-J.Harris; 84-C.Patterson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:14) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to ATL 24, Center-45-R.Lovato. 35-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 7 yards (19-J.Arcega-Whiteside; 57-T.Edwards). PENALTY on ATL-32-J.Hawkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 28.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (97-J.Hargrave).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (97-J.Hargrave).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 87%

    (1:15) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.