Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

(14:52) 9-C.Nizialek punts 50 yards to PHI 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 18 for 7 yards (27-R.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.76 EP
67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model