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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 22 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to ATL 8, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP