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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 24

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to PHI 23 for 1 yard (50-E.Wilson; 57-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.56 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model